Catcher Technology:Not the best catch,stay at HOLD发布时间：2014-04-03 研究机构：KIM ENG
Raise TP to TWD220 to factor in better Sony demand in 1H14 and 12x2014F PE. Maintain HOLD as the Street’s upward earnings revisionappears close to the peak.
Management has toned down the Samsung metal casing order winexpectation.
Further re-rating unlikely as the company will throw all its eggs intoone basket by fully concentrating only on iPhone 6 4.7 inch in2H14/2015F (not diversify any further).
Catcher is due to release its March sales on 5 Apr. Although it’s likely tobeat our previous estimate (due mainly to the better demand for Sony’sXperia Z1 compact and the new Z2) it will just meet the low end ofconsensus forecast of -22% QoQ (vs. guidance of -20% QoQ). Looking ahead,we estimate 2Q14 sales to grow 10% QoQ to TWD11.4b, driven by Sony andHTC, but lower than consensus of TWD11.7b owing to iPad mini orderdilution and no Samsung metal casing contribution.What’s Our View。
For FY14F, we forecast Catcher will grab 20% of the iPhone 4.7 inchallocation at best (vs. consensus of 20% at base case). We assume Catchercan raise its margin by 130bps to 33.5% in FY14F, driven by a richerproduct mix towards the smartphone business.
We raise our FY14 earnings forecast by 4%, but we expect limited sharepriceupside from here as we believe the upward revision of consensusestimates will take a pause (figure 2) given the slightly weaker 1H14Foutlook and no further upside surprise on 2H14F performance vs.consensus. Our new target price of TWD220 (from TWD190) is based on2014F EPS and 12x PER (from 11x to reflect the better earnings growth).Key risks are end demand and competition from Hon Hai group andCasetek.